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Predictive Models for Recycling Rate, Contamination Risk and Waste Collection in Europe



Author(s)

Mila Ilieva-Obretenova and Irena Grigorova

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DOI:10.17265/2161-6213/2026.1-3.003

University of Mining and Geology “St. Ivan Rilski”, 1700 Sofia, Bulgaria

Waste management in Europe faces mounting challenges from rising consumption, climate pressures, and uneven infrastructure. Collection schedules—the frequency and design of waste pickup—are central to recycling performance, influencing contamination rates, material recovery, and citizen participation. This study examines how geographic zones (Nordic, Western, Southern, Eastern, and UK/Ireland) differ in waste generation, organics share, seasonal drivers, and policy frameworks, and how these factors shape collection schedules and recycling outcomes. Using predictive modelling and scenario analysis, the research highlights the role of adaptive scheduling in managing seasonal surges from tourism and heatwaves, the importance of separate organics collection, and the divergence between EU harmonization efforts and local implementation. Results show that high-performing regions combine frequent, differentiated collection with advanced infrastructure and strong policy support, while lower-performing zones face constraints from climate stressors and infrastructural gaps. The study concludes that resilient waste systems require hybrid strategies—integrating technology, policy, and community engagement—to meet circular economy targets. Future work will focus on empirical validation, climate stress-testing, and international collaboration and policy development.

Waste management, recycling, schedules, regional differences, circular economy.