Affiliation(s)
Klaus Abberger, Doctor rerum politicarum, Head of Department Business Cycle Surveys, KOF Swiss Economic Institute of the ETH Zurich.
Wolfgang Nierhaus, Doctor rerum politicarum, Deputy Director, ifo Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys, Ifo Institute—Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
Khaled ElSayed M. Desouky, Economic Expert, Department of Economic Development.
Shorooq Abdulla E. Al-Zaabi, Head of Development Indicators & Future Studies Division, Department of Economic Development.
ABSTRACT
According to the Abu Dhabi Economic Vision 2030, the main objective is to diversify its production base, and widen non-oil production. In addition to this growth strategy cyclical fluctuations are also a concern. Economic measures to increase the periods of economic prosperity and reduce the slowdown periods are implemented. To do so there is also a need for reliable tools to monitor the cyclical economic development. The composite indicator approach for economic change assessment, therefore, is seen as a proper method taken up by the Department of Economic Development (DED) in Abu Dhabi as a tool to assess actual short-term economic changes. However, there are no quarterly national accounts for Abu Dhabi at the moment and only a few short-term statistics. A suitable quarterly reference series for indicator assessment has to be constructed with temporal disaggregation methods. Since Abu Dhabi has a huge oil sector real income is used as a reference, because it reflects the economic situation better than real GDP. For the construction of the composite indicators various data sources are exploited.
KEYWORDS
business cycle indicators, composite indicators, Abu Dhabi economic development, terms-of-trade, business tendency surveys, quarterly national accounts
Cite this paper
References
Barcellan, R., & Buono, D. (2002). ECOTRIM interface user manual. Eurostat, The Statistical Office of the European Communities.
Chow, G. C., & Lin, A. (1971). Best linear unbiased interpolation, distribution and exploration of time series by related series. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 53(4), 372-375.
De Bondt, G., & Hahn, E. E. (2010). Predicting recessions and upturns in real time: The euro area wide indicator (ALI). European Central Ban Working Paper No. 1246.
European Commission. (2006). The joint harmonized EU program of business and consumer surveys. Special Report 5/2006.
Eurostat. (1999). Handbook on quarterly national accounts. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities.
Findley, D. F., Monsell, B. C., Bell, W. R., Otto, M. C., & Chen, B. C. (1998). New capabilities and methods of the X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment program. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 16(2), 127-177.
Hodrick, R. J., & Prescott, E. C. (1997). Postwar U.S. business cycles: An empirical investigation. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 29(1), 1-16.
Kohli, U. (2004). Real GDP, real domestic income and terms-of-trade changes. Journal of International Economics, 62, 83-106.
OECD. (2003). Business tendency survey—A handbook. Paris: OECD.
OECD. (2008). Handbook on construction composite indicators. Paris: OECD.
XML 1499 Views