A Fundamental Study on Multi-agent Pedestrian Model Based on Risk Avoidance Behavior during Road Blockage and Evacuation Simulation of Regional Urban Disaster

Regional cities in Japan are at the risk of experiencing big fire accidents or earthquakes every day. However, neither the number nor the capacity of shelters has increased because local governments might not consider them owing to budget shortfall. By contrast, wide-area evacuation simulations can easily provide an antagonizing image of regional urban disasters. After a disaster, the city collapses and the evacuation routes are closed; consequently, evacuees feel anxious and they cannot move as usual. This anxiety behavior has not been considered in previous related studies and simulations. In this study, a wide-area evacuation simulation is developed; this model can not only calculate the possibility of blocking escape routes when the city is broken but also provide safe and more realistic evacuation plans before a disaster occurs by incorporating into the simulation the risk avoidance behaviors of evacuees from road blockage, such as “the route re-seeking behavior” and “the shelter re-selecting behavior”.