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Article
Author(s)
Warren Richard Hughes
Full-Text PDF XML 1201 Views
DOI:10.17265/2328-2185/2022.05.006
Affiliation(s)
University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand
ABSTRACT
The methodology presented
below can be viewed as a means of quantifying intuitions, guesses, hunches
etc., about relative likelihoods for alternative events leading to a “ballpark”
probability distribution. Different intuitions etc., will lead to different
“ballpark” distributions. A final distribution can then be formulated by the
decision-maker using other information as in minimum or maximum collective
probabilities for groups of events or similar assessments. Final judgments may
be idiosyncratic to the decision-maker and not easily replicable in an
algorithm.
KEYWORDS
probability assessment, pairwise judgments, spreadsheets, minimal calculation
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