Prime Minister Turnover and Distributive Policy Making: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis

Government allocates billons of dollars every year to individuals, private and nonprofit organizations, as well as state and local governments. General resources are directed or manipulated to specific purposes, individuals and areas subjectively. Provinces obtaining representation on the prime ministry level evidence an increased amount of budgetary allocation, whereas provinces losing representation evidence a decreased amount of such allocation to his/her election region. To test this provinces benefit hypothesis, the data on the distribution of public investment expenditures (PIE) among provinces represented by the prime minister (PM) were gathered for 35 years. The interrupted time series method was employed to test the hypothesis. The research design measured time (general trend) and intervention effect on the distribution of public investment expenditures since being represented by PM.