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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License
Article
Author(s)
Harald Ulrik Sverdrup, Deniz Koca and Kristín Vala Ragnarsdóttir
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DOI:10.17265/2162-5263/2013.04.001
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ABSTRACT
Several strategic metals, elements and energy
resources are about to run into scarcity in the near future under the present
paradigm of use. A global systems model has been developed (WORLD) to assess the issue of scarcity and
its implications for society. We show that scarcity may lead to “peak wealth”, “peak
population”, “peak waste” and “peak civilization”, unless urgent counter-measures
are systematically undertaken. Materials that underpin modern society may become unavailable for
global mass production of goods. The material volumes that can be supplied from
fossil reserves will be reduced with respect to today and resources will go up
in price. The future resource supply is unsustainable without comprehensive
recycling. The creation of wealth from conversion of resources and work, as
well as the current extensive borrowing from the future, cause
concerns that peaking energy and materials production may lead to “peak
wealth” and the end of the golden age we live in. Our policy recommendations
are that governments must take this issue seriously and must immediately start
preparing legislations to close material cycles, optimize energy use and
minimize irreversible material losses. Research efforts need to be based on
systems thinking and a concerted effort is needed.
KEYWORDS
Sustainability, scarcity, integrated modelling, burn-off time, peak resources, peak phosphorus, peak wealth.
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